Calibration: the Achilles heel of predictive analytics

Ben van Calster; David J. McLernon; Maarten van Smeden; Laure Wynants; Ewout W. Steyerberg; Topic Group ‘Evaluating diagnostic tests and prediction models’ of the STRATOS initiative

doi:10.1186/s12916-019-1466-7

Calibration: the Achilles heel of predictive analytics

Ben van Calster^*, David J. McLernon, Maarten van Smeden, Laure Wynants, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Topic Group ‘Evaluating diagnostic tests and prediction models’ of the STRATOS initiative

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

135 Citations (Web of Science)

Original language	English
Article number	230
Number of pages	7
Journal	BMC Medicine
Volume	17
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-019-1466-7
Publication status	Published - 16 Dec 2019

Keywords

Calibration
Risk prediction models
Predictive analytics
Overfitting
Heterogeneity
Model performance
LOGISTIC-REGRESSION MODELS
OVARIAN-CANCER
VALIDATION
IMPACT
IVF

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10.1186/s12916-019-1466-7Licence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{1ae28d7e269d48bb94fc8409a2999783,

title = "Calibration: the Achilles heel of predictive analytics",

keywords = "Calibration, Risk prediction models, Predictive analytics, Overfitting, Heterogeneity, Model performance, LOGISTIC-REGRESSION MODELS, OVARIAN-CANCER, VALIDATION, IMPACT, IVF",

author = "{van Calster}, Ben and McLernon, {David J.} and {van Smeden}, Maarten and Laure Wynants and Steyerberg, {Ewout W.} and {Topic Group {\textquoteleft}Evaluating diagnostic tests and prediction models{\textquoteright} of the STRATOS initiative}",

year = "2019",

month = dec,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1186/s12916-019-1466-7",

language = "English",

volume = "17",

journal = "BMC Medicine",

issn = "1741-7015",

publisher = "BioMed Central Ltd",

number = "1",

}

Calibration : the Achilles heel of predictive analytics. / van Calster, Ben; McLernon, David J.; van Smeden, Maarten; Wynants, Laure; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Topic Group ‘Evaluating diagnostic tests and prediction models’ of the STRATOS initiative.

In: BMC Medicine, Vol. 17, No. 1, 230, 16.12.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Calibration

T2 - the Achilles heel of predictive analytics

AU - van Calster, Ben

AU - McLernon, David J.

AU - van Smeden, Maarten

AU - Wynants, Laure

AU - Steyerberg, Ewout W.

AU - Topic Group ‘Evaluating diagnostic tests and prediction models’ of the STRATOS initiative

PY - 2019/12/16

Y1 - 2019/12/16

KW - Calibration

KW - Risk prediction models

KW - Predictive analytics

KW - Overfitting

KW - Heterogeneity

KW - Model performance

KW - LOGISTIC-REGRESSION MODELS

KW - OVARIAN-CANCER

KW - VALIDATION

KW - IMPACT

KW - IVF

U2 - 10.1186/s12916-019-1466-7

DO - 10.1186/s12916-019-1466-7

M3 - Article

C2 - 31842878

VL - 17

JO - BMC Medicine

JF - BMC Medicine

SN - 1741-7015

IS - 1

M1 - 230

ER -