Machine learning-based combined nomogram for predicting the risk of pulmonary invasive fungal infection in severely immunocompromised patients

Background: Early and accurate diagnosis of invasive fungal infection (IFI) is pivotal for the initiation of effective antifungal therapy for patients with hematologic malignancies. Methods: This retrospective study involved 235 patients with hematologic malignancies and pulmonary infections diagnosed as IFIs (n=118) or bacterial pneumonia (n=117). Patients were randomly divided into training (n=188) and validation (n=47) datasets. Four feature selection methods with nine classifiers were implemented to select the optimal machine learning (ML) model using five-fold cross-validation. A radiomic signature was constructed using a linear ML algorithm, and a radiomic score (Radscore) was calculated. The combined model was developed with the Radscore, the significant clinical and radiologic factors were selected using multivariable logistic regression, and the results were presented as a clinical radiomic nomogram. A prospective pilot study was also conducted to compare the classification performance of the combined nomogram with practicing radiologists. Results: Significant differences were found in the Radscore between IFI and bacterial pneumonia patients in the training (0.683 vs. -0.724, P<0.001) and validation set (0.353 vs. -0.717, P=0.002). The combined model showed good discrimination performance in the validation cohort [area under the curve (AUC) =0.844] and outperformed the clinical (AUC =0.696) and radiomics (AUC =0.767) model alone (both P<0.05). Conclusions: The clinical radiomic nomogram can serve as a promising predictive tool for IFI in patients with hematologic malignancies.