Automation risks of vocational training programs and early careers in the Netherlands

Alexander Dicks; Annemarie Künn-Nelen; Mark Levels; Raymond Montizaan

doi:10.1177/00016993241250277

Automation risks of vocational training programs and early careers in the Netherlands

Alexander Dicks^*, Annemarie Künn-Nelen, Mark Levels, Raymond Montizaan

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

In this article, we study the role of automation risks in the school-to-work transition (STWT) of secondary vocational education (VET) graduates in the Netherlands. We use a combination of administrative and survey data, enriched with estimates of automation risks. Using sequence analysis, we find four ideal-type school-to-work trajectories representing the first 10 years in the labor market: employment, further education, further VET, and NEET. Multinomial regressions show that automation risk is not consistently associated with the type of school-to-work trajectory. We also investigate the relation between automation risk and starting wages and wage growth. We find that automation risk is negatively associated with starting wages, but not with wage growth.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	507-528
Number of pages	22
Journal	Acta Sociologica
Volume	67
Issue number	4
Early online date	1 May 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/00016993241250277
Publication status	Published - Nov 2024

Keywords

Automation
school-to-work transition
wage growth
vocational education and training
sequence analysis
LABOR-MARKET OUTCOMES
TO-WORK TRANSITION
TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE
SCHOOL
EDUCATION
EMPLOYMENT
INEQUALITY
LINKAGES
FUTURE
SKILLS

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10.1177/00016993241250277Licence: CC BY

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title = "Automation risks of vocational training programs and early careers in the Netherlands",

abstract = "In this article, we study the role of automation risks in the school-to-work transition (STWT) of secondary vocational education (VET) graduates in the Netherlands. We use a combination of administrative and survey data, enriched with estimates of automation risks. Using sequence analysis, we find four ideal-type school-to-work trajectories representing the first 10 years in the labor market: employment, further education, further VET, and NEET. Multinomial regressions show that automation risk is not consistently associated with the type of school-to-work trajectory. We also investigate the relation between automation risk and starting wages and wage growth. We find that automation risk is negatively associated with starting wages, but not with wage growth.",

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author = "Alexander Dicks and Annemarie K{\"u}nn-Nelen and Mark Levels and Raymond Montizaan",

note = "Other data sources used: Dutch VOCL{\textquoteright}99 survey + admin data from CBS ",

year = "2024",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1177/00016993241250277",

language = "English",

volume = "67",

pages = "507--528",

journal = "Acta Sociologica",

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T1 - Automation risks of vocational training programs and early careers in the Netherlands

AU - Dicks, Alexander

AU - Künn-Nelen, Annemarie

AU - Levels, Mark

AU - Montizaan, Raymond

N1 - Other data sources used: Dutch VOCL’99 survey + admin data from CBS

PY - 2024/11

Y1 - 2024/11

N2 - In this article, we study the role of automation risks in the school-to-work transition (STWT) of secondary vocational education (VET) graduates in the Netherlands. We use a combination of administrative and survey data, enriched with estimates of automation risks. Using sequence analysis, we find four ideal-type school-to-work trajectories representing the first 10 years in the labor market: employment, further education, further VET, and NEET. Multinomial regressions show that automation risk is not consistently associated with the type of school-to-work trajectory. We also investigate the relation between automation risk and starting wages and wage growth. We find that automation risk is negatively associated with starting wages, but not with wage growth.

AB - In this article, we study the role of automation risks in the school-to-work transition (STWT) of secondary vocational education (VET) graduates in the Netherlands. We use a combination of administrative and survey data, enriched with estimates of automation risks. Using sequence analysis, we find four ideal-type school-to-work trajectories representing the first 10 years in the labor market: employment, further education, further VET, and NEET. Multinomial regressions show that automation risk is not consistently associated with the type of school-to-work trajectory. We also investigate the relation between automation risk and starting wages and wage growth. We find that automation risk is negatively associated with starting wages, but not with wage growth.

KW - Automation

KW - school-to-work transition

KW - wage growth

KW - vocational education and training

KW - sequence analysis

KW - LABOR-MARKET OUTCOMES

KW - TO-WORK TRANSITION

KW - TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE

KW - SCHOOL

KW - EDUCATION

KW - EMPLOYMENT

KW - INEQUALITY

KW - LINKAGES

KW - FUTURE

KW - SKILLS

U2 - 10.1177/00016993241250277

DO - 10.1177/00016993241250277

M3 - Article

SN - 0001-6993

VL - 67

SP - 507

EP - 528

JO - Acta Sociologica

JF - Acta Sociologica

IS - 4

ER -

Automation risks of vocational training programs and early careers in the Netherlands

Abstract

Keywords

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