Associations of early changes in lung ultrasound aeration scores and mortality in invasively ventilated patients: a post hoc analysis

Background: Lung ultrasound (LUS) in an emerging technique used in the intensive care unit (ICU). The derivative LUS aeration score has been shown to have associations with mortality in invasively ventilated patients. This study assessed the predictive value of baseline and early changes in LUS aeration scores in critically ill invasively ventilated patients with and without ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) on 30- and 90-day mortality. Methods: This is a post hoc analysis of a multicenter prospective observational cohort study, which included patients admitted to the ICU with an expected duration of ventilation for at least 24 h. We restricted participation to patients who underwent a 12-region LUS exam at baseline and had the primary endpoint (30-day mortality) available. Logistic regression was used to analyze the primary and secondary endpoints. The analysis was performed for the complete patient cohort and for predefined subgroups (ARDS and no ARDS). Results: A total of 442 patients were included, of whom 245 had a second LUS exam. The baseline LUS aeration score was not associated with mortality (1.02 (95% CI: 0.99 – 1.06), p = 0.143). This finding was not different in patients with and in patients without ARDS. Early deterioration of the LUS score was associated with mortality (2.09 (95% CI: 1.01 – 4.3), p = 0.046) in patients without ARDS, but not in patients with ARDS or in the complete patient cohort. Conclusion: In this cohort of critically ill invasively ventilated patients, the baseline LUS aeration score was not associated with 30- and 90-day mortality. An early change in the LUS aeration score was associated with mortality, but only in patients without ARDS. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, ID NCT04482621.