Association of Change in Cardiovascular Risk Factors With Incident Cardiovascular Events

IMPORTANCE There is consistent evidence of the association between ideal cardiovascular health and lower incident cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, most studies used a single measure of cardiovascular health.

OBJECTIVE To examine how cardiovascular health changes over time and whether these changes are associated with incident CVD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective cohort study in a UK general community (Whitehall II), with examinations of cardiovascular health from 1985/1988 (baseline) and every 5 years thereafter until 2015/2016 and follow-up for incident CVD until March 2017.

EXPOSURES Using the 7 metrics of the American Heart Association (nonsmoking; and ideal levels of body mass index, physical activity, diet, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, and total cholesterol), participants with 0 to 2, 3 to 4, and 5 to 7 ideal metrics were categorized as having low, moderate, and high cardiovascular health. Change in cardiovascular health over 10 years between 1985/1988 and 1997/1999 was considered.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE Incident CVD (coronary heart disease and stroke).

RESULTS The study population included 9256 participants without prior CVD (mean [SD] age at baseline, 44.8 [6.0] years; 2941 [32%] women), of whom 6326 had data about cardiovascular health change. Over a median follow-up of 18.9 years after 1997/1999, 1114 incident CVD events occurred. In multivariable analysis and compared with individuals with persistently low cardiovascular health (consistently low group, 13.5% of participants; CVD incident rate per 1000 person-years, 9.6 [95% CI, 8.4-10.9]), there was no significant association with CVD risk in the low to moderate group (6.8% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -1.9 [95% CI, -3.9 to 0.1]; HR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.66-1.08]), the low to high group, (0.3% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -7.7 [95% CI, -11.5 to -3.9]; HR, 0.19 [95% CI, 0.03-1.35]), and the moderate to low group (18.0% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -1.3 [95% CI, -3.0 to 0.3]; HR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.80-1.15]). A lower CVD risk was observed in the consistently moderate group (38.9% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -4.2 [95% CI, -5.5 to -2.8]; HR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.53-0.74]), the moderate to high group (5.8% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -6.4 [95% CI, -8.0 to -4.7]; HR, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.27-0.56]), the high to low group (1.9% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -5.3 [95% CI, -7.8 to -2.8]; HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.29-0.83]), the high to moderate group (9.3% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -4.5 [95% CI, -6.2 to -2.9]; HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.51-0.85]), and the consistently high group (5.5% of participants; absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years, -5.6 [95% CI, -7.4 to -3.9]; HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.40-0.80]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among a group of participants without CVD who received follow-up over a median 18.9 years, there was no consistent relationship between direction of change in category of a composite metric of cardiovascular health and risk of CVD.