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Artificial intelligence, jobs, inequality and productivity: Does aggregate demand matter?

  • Thomas Gries
  • , Wim Naude

Research output: Working paper / PreprintWorking paper

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Abstract

Rapid technological progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has been predicted to lead to mass unemployment, rising inequality, and higher productivity growth through automation. In this paper we critically re-assess these predictions by (i) surveying the recent literature and (ii) incorporating AI-facilitated automation into a product variety-model, frequently used in endogenous growth theory, but modified to allow for demand-side constraints. This is a novel approach, given that endogenous growth models, and including most recent work on AI in economic growth, are largely supply-driven. Our contribution is motivated by two reasons. One is that there are still only very few theoretical models of economic growth that incorporate AI, and moreover an absence of growth models with AI that takes into consideration growth constraints due to insuficient aggregate demand. A second is that the predictions of AI causing massive job losses and faster growth in
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationMaastricht
PublisherUNU-MERIT
Publication statusPublished - 12 Dec 2018

Publication series

SeriesUNU-MERIT Working Papers
Number047
ISSN1871-9872

JEL classifications

  • e21 - "Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth"
  • e25 - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
  • j24 - "Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity"
  • o33 - "Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes"
  • o47 - "Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence"

Keywords

  • Technology
  • artificial intelligence
  • productivity
  • labour demand
  • innovation
  • growth theory

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