Alternative Fistula Risk Score for Pancreatoduodenectomy (a-FRS) Design and International External Validation

Timothy H. Mungroop; L. Bengt van Rijssen; David van Klaveren; F. Jasmijn Smits; Victor van Woerden; Ralph J. Linnemann; Matteo de Pastena; Sjors Klompmaker; Giovanni Marchegiani; Brett L. Ecker; Susan van Dieren; Bert Bonsing; Olivier R. Busch; Ronald M. van Dam; Joris Erdmann; Casper H. van Eijck; Michael E. Gerhards; Harry van Goor; Erwin van der Harst; Ignace H. de Hingh; Koert P. de Jong; Geert Kazemier; Misha Luyer; Awad Shamali; Salvatore Barbaro; Thomas Armstrong; Arjun Takhar; Zaed Hamady; Joost Klaase; Daan J. Lips; I. Quintus Molenaar; Vincent B. Nieuwenhuijs; Coen Rupert; Hjalmar C. van Santvoort; Joris J. Scheepers; George P. van der Schelling; Claudio Bassi; Charles M. Vollmer; Ewout W. Steyerberg; Mohammed Abu Hilal; Bas Groot Koerkamp; Marc G. Besselink; Dutch Pancreatic Canc Grp

doi:10.1097/SLA.0000000000002620

Alternative Fistula Risk Score for Pancreatoduodenectomy (a-FRS) Design and International External Validation

Timothy H. Mungroop^*, L. Bengt van Rijssen, David van Klaveren, F. Jasmijn Smits, Victor van Woerden, Ralph J. Linnemann, Matteo de Pastena, Sjors Klompmaker, Giovanni Marchegiani, Brett L. Ecker, Susan van Dieren, Bert Bonsing, Olivier R. Busch, Ronald M. van Dam, Joris Erdmann, Casper H. van Eijck, Michael E. Gerhards, Harry van Goor, Erwin van der Harst, Ignace H. de HinghKoert P. de Jong, Geert Kazemier, Misha Luyer, Awad Shamali, Salvatore Barbaro, Thomas Armstrong, Arjun Takhar, Zaed Hamady, Joost Klaase, Daan J. Lips, I. Quintus Molenaar, Vincent B. Nieuwenhuijs, Coen Rupert, Hjalmar C. van Santvoort, Joris J. Scheepers, George P. van der Schelling, Claudio Bassi, Charles M. Vollmer, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Mohammed Abu Hilal, Bas Groot Koerkamp, Marc G. Besselink^*, Dutch Pancreatic Canc Grp

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

147 Citations (Web of Science)

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop an alternative fistula risk score (a-FRS) for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy, without blood loss as a predictor.

Background: Blood loss, one of the predictors of the original-FRS, was not a significant factor during 2 recent external validations.

Methods: The a-FRS was developed in 2 databases: the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit (18 centers) and the University Hospital Southampton NHS. Primary outcome was grade B/C POPF according to the 2005 International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) definition. The score was externally validated in 2 independent databases (University Hospital of Verona and University Hospital of Pennsylvania), using both 2005 and 2016 ISGPS definitions. The a-FRS was also compared with the original-FRS.

Results: For model design, 1924 patients were included of whom 12% developed POPE Three predictors were strongly associated with POPF: soft pancreatic texture [odds ratio (OR) 2.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.80-3.69], small pancreatic duct diameter (per mm increase, OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61-0.76), and high body mass index (BMI) (per kg/m(2) increase, OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11). Discrimination was adequate with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.78) after internal validation, and 0.78 (0.74-0.82) after external validation. The predictive capacity of a-FRS was comparable with the original-FRS, both for the 2005 definition (AUC 0.78 vs 0.75, P = 0.03), and 2016 definition (AUC 0.72 vs 0.70, P = 0.05).

Conclusion: The a-FRS predicts POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy based on 3 easily available variables (pancreatic texture, duct diameter, BMI) without blood loss and pathology, and was successfully validated for both the 2005 and 2016 POPF definition. The online calculator is available at www.pancreascalculator.com .

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	937-943
Number of pages	7
Journal	Annals of Surgery
Volume	269
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000002620
Publication status	Published - May 2019

Keywords

complication
pancreas
pancreatic fistula
prediction model
POSTOPERATIVE PANCREATIC FISTULA
LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ANALYSIS
BLOOD-LOSS
PREDICTION
PERFORMANCE
MODELS
SYSTEM
MANAGEMENT
DRAINAGE

Access to Document

10.1097/SLA.0000000000002620

Cite this

Mungroop, T. H., van Rijssen, L. B., van Klaveren, D., Smits, F. J., van Woerden, V., Linnemann, R. J., de Pastena, M., Klompmaker, S., Marchegiani, G., Ecker, B. L., van Dieren, S., Bonsing, B., Busch, O. R., van Dam, R. M., Erdmann, J., van Eijck, C. H., Gerhards, M. E., van Goor, H., van der Harst, E., ... Dutch Pancreatic Canc Grp (2019). Alternative Fistula Risk Score for Pancreatoduodenectomy (a-FRS) Design and International External Validation. Annals of Surgery, 269(5), 937-943. https://doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000002620

@article{0b2bf1f949d34e56a0f91f73434d44c9,

title = "Alternative Fistula Risk Score for Pancreatoduodenectomy (a-FRS) Design and International External Validation",

abstract = "Objective: The aim of this study was to develop an alternative fistula risk score (a-FRS) for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy, without blood loss as a predictor.Background: Blood loss, one of the predictors of the original-FRS, was not a significant factor during 2 recent external validations.Methods: The a-FRS was developed in 2 databases: the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit (18 centers) and the University Hospital Southampton NHS. Primary outcome was grade B/C POPF according to the 2005 International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) definition. The score was externally validated in 2 independent databases (University Hospital of Verona and University Hospital of Pennsylvania), using both 2005 and 2016 ISGPS definitions. The a-FRS was also compared with the original-FRS.Results: For model design, 1924 patients were included of whom 12% developed POPE Three predictors were strongly associated with POPF: soft pancreatic texture [odds ratio (OR) 2.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.80-3.69], small pancreatic duct diameter (per mm increase, OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61-0.76), and high body mass index (BMI) (per kg/m(2) increase, OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11). Discrimination was adequate with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.78) after internal validation, and 0.78 (0.74-0.82) after external validation. The predictive capacity of a-FRS was comparable with the original-FRS, both for the 2005 definition (AUC 0.78 vs 0.75, P = 0.03), and 2016 definition (AUC 0.72 vs 0.70, P = 0.05).Conclusion: The a-FRS predicts POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy based on 3 easily available variables (pancreatic texture, duct diameter, BMI) without blood loss and pathology, and was successfully validated for both the 2005 and 2016 POPF definition. The online calculator is available at www.pancreascalculator.com .",

keywords = "complication, pancreas, pancreatic fistula, prediction model, POSTOPERATIVE PANCREATIC FISTULA, LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ANALYSIS, BLOOD-LOSS, PREDICTION, PERFORMANCE, MODELS, SYSTEM, MANAGEMENT, DRAINAGE",

author = "Mungroop, {Timothy H.} and {van Rijssen}, {L. Bengt} and {van Klaveren}, David and Smits, {F. Jasmijn} and {van Woerden}, Victor and Linnemann, {Ralph J.} and {de Pastena}, Matteo and Sjors Klompmaker and Giovanni Marchegiani and Ecker, {Brett L.} and {van Dieren}, Susan and Bert Bonsing and Busch, {Olivier R.} and {van Dam}, {Ronald M.} and Joris Erdmann and {van Eijck}, {Casper H.} and Gerhards, {Michael E.} and {van Goor}, Harry and {van der Harst}, Erwin and {de Hingh}, {Ignace H.} and {de Jong}, {Koert P.} and Geert Kazemier and Misha Luyer and Awad Shamali and Salvatore Barbaro and Thomas Armstrong and Arjun Takhar and Zaed Hamady and Joost Klaase and Lips, {Daan J.} and Molenaar, {I. Quintus} and Nieuwenhuijs, {Vincent B.} and Coen Rupert and {van Santvoort}, {Hjalmar C.} and Scheepers, {Joris J.} and {van der Schelling}, {George P.} and Claudio Bassi and Vollmer, {Charles M.} and Steyerberg, {Ewout W.} and {Abu Hilal}, Mohammed and Koerkamp, {Bas Groot} and Besselink, {Marc G.} and {Dutch Pancreatic Canc Grp}",

year = "2019",

month = may,

doi = "10.1097/SLA.0000000000002620",

language = "English",

volume = "269",

pages = "937--943",

journal = "Annals of Surgery",

issn = "0003-4932",

publisher = "LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS",

number = "5",

}

Mungroop, TH, van Rijssen, LB, van Klaveren, D, Smits, FJ, van Woerden, V, Linnemann, RJ, de Pastena, M, Klompmaker, S, Marchegiani, G, Ecker, BL, van Dieren, S, Bonsing, B, Busch, OR, van Dam, RM, Erdmann, J, van Eijck, CH, Gerhards, ME, van Goor, H, van der Harst, E, de Hingh, IH, de Jong, KP, Kazemier, G, Luyer, M, Shamali, A, Barbaro, S, Armstrong, T, Takhar, A, Hamady, Z, Klaase, J, Lips, DJ, Molenaar, IQ, Nieuwenhuijs, VB, Rupert, C, van Santvoort, HC, Scheepers, JJ, van der Schelling, GP, Bassi, C, Vollmer, CM, Steyerberg, EW, Abu Hilal, M, Koerkamp, BG, Besselink, MG & Dutch Pancreatic Canc Grp 2019, 'Alternative Fistula Risk Score for Pancreatoduodenectomy (a-FRS) Design and International External Validation', Annals of Surgery, vol. 269, no. 5, pp. 937-943. https://doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000002620

TY - JOUR

T1 - Alternative Fistula Risk Score for Pancreatoduodenectomy (a-FRS) Design and International External Validation

AU - Mungroop, Timothy H.

AU - van Rijssen, L. Bengt

AU - van Klaveren, David

AU - Smits, F. Jasmijn

AU - van Woerden, Victor

AU - Linnemann, Ralph J.

AU - de Pastena, Matteo

AU - Klompmaker, Sjors

AU - Marchegiani, Giovanni

AU - Ecker, Brett L.

AU - van Dieren, Susan

AU - Bonsing, Bert

AU - Busch, Olivier R.

AU - van Dam, Ronald M.

AU - Erdmann, Joris

AU - van Eijck, Casper H.

AU - Gerhards, Michael E.

AU - van Goor, Harry

AU - van der Harst, Erwin

AU - de Hingh, Ignace H.

AU - de Jong, Koert P.

AU - Kazemier, Geert

AU - Luyer, Misha

AU - Shamali, Awad

AU - Barbaro, Salvatore

AU - Armstrong, Thomas

AU - Takhar, Arjun

AU - Hamady, Zaed

AU - Klaase, Joost

AU - Lips, Daan J.

AU - Molenaar, I. Quintus

AU - Nieuwenhuijs, Vincent B.

AU - Rupert, Coen

AU - van Santvoort, Hjalmar C.

AU - Scheepers, Joris J.

AU - van der Schelling, George P.

AU - Bassi, Claudio

AU - Vollmer, Charles M.

AU - Steyerberg, Ewout W.

AU - Abu Hilal, Mohammed

AU - Koerkamp, Bas Groot

AU - Besselink, Marc G.

AU - Dutch Pancreatic Canc Grp

PY - 2019/5

Y1 - 2019/5

N2 - Objective: The aim of this study was to develop an alternative fistula risk score (a-FRS) for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy, without blood loss as a predictor.Background: Blood loss, one of the predictors of the original-FRS, was not a significant factor during 2 recent external validations.Methods: The a-FRS was developed in 2 databases: the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit (18 centers) and the University Hospital Southampton NHS. Primary outcome was grade B/C POPF according to the 2005 International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) definition. The score was externally validated in 2 independent databases (University Hospital of Verona and University Hospital of Pennsylvania), using both 2005 and 2016 ISGPS definitions. The a-FRS was also compared with the original-FRS.Results: For model design, 1924 patients were included of whom 12% developed POPE Three predictors were strongly associated with POPF: soft pancreatic texture [odds ratio (OR) 2.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.80-3.69], small pancreatic duct diameter (per mm increase, OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61-0.76), and high body mass index (BMI) (per kg/m(2) increase, OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11). Discrimination was adequate with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.78) after internal validation, and 0.78 (0.74-0.82) after external validation. The predictive capacity of a-FRS was comparable with the original-FRS, both for the 2005 definition (AUC 0.78 vs 0.75, P = 0.03), and 2016 definition (AUC 0.72 vs 0.70, P = 0.05).Conclusion: The a-FRS predicts POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy based on 3 easily available variables (pancreatic texture, duct diameter, BMI) without blood loss and pathology, and was successfully validated for both the 2005 and 2016 POPF definition. The online calculator is available at www.pancreascalculator.com .

AB - Objective: The aim of this study was to develop an alternative fistula risk score (a-FRS) for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy, without blood loss as a predictor.Background: Blood loss, one of the predictors of the original-FRS, was not a significant factor during 2 recent external validations.Methods: The a-FRS was developed in 2 databases: the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit (18 centers) and the University Hospital Southampton NHS. Primary outcome was grade B/C POPF according to the 2005 International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) definition. The score was externally validated in 2 independent databases (University Hospital of Verona and University Hospital of Pennsylvania), using both 2005 and 2016 ISGPS definitions. The a-FRS was also compared with the original-FRS.Results: For model design, 1924 patients were included of whom 12% developed POPE Three predictors were strongly associated with POPF: soft pancreatic texture [odds ratio (OR) 2.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.80-3.69], small pancreatic duct diameter (per mm increase, OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61-0.76), and high body mass index (BMI) (per kg/m(2) increase, OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11). Discrimination was adequate with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.78) after internal validation, and 0.78 (0.74-0.82) after external validation. The predictive capacity of a-FRS was comparable with the original-FRS, both for the 2005 definition (AUC 0.78 vs 0.75, P = 0.03), and 2016 definition (AUC 0.72 vs 0.70, P = 0.05).Conclusion: The a-FRS predicts POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy based on 3 easily available variables (pancreatic texture, duct diameter, BMI) without blood loss and pathology, and was successfully validated for both the 2005 and 2016 POPF definition. The online calculator is available at www.pancreascalculator.com .

KW - complication

KW - pancreas

KW - pancreatic fistula

KW - prediction model

KW - POSTOPERATIVE PANCREATIC FISTULA

KW - LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ANALYSIS

KW - BLOOD-LOSS

KW - PREDICTION

KW - PERFORMANCE

KW - MODELS

KW - SYSTEM

KW - MANAGEMENT

KW - DRAINAGE

U2 - 10.1097/SLA.0000000000002620

DO - 10.1097/SLA.0000000000002620

M3 - Article

C2 - 29240007

VL - 269

SP - 937

EP - 943

JO - Annals of Surgery

JF - Annals of Surgery

SN - 0003-4932

IS - 5

ER -