Alcohol Consumption and its Related Harms in the Netherlands Since 1960: Relationships With Planned and Unplanned Factors

Aim: to establish which unplanned (social developments) and planned (alcohol policy measures) factors are related to per capita consumption and alcohol-related harms in the Netherlands. Methods: linear regression was used to establish which of the planned and unplanned factors were most strongly connected with alcohol consumption and harms. Artificial Neural Analysis (ANN) was used to inspect the interconnections between all variables. Results: mothers age at birth was most strongly associated with increase in consumption. The ban on selling alcoholic beverages at petrol station was associated with a decrease in consumption. The linear regression of harms did not show any relation between alcohol policy measures and harms. The ANN-analyses indicate a very high inter-connectedness between all variables allowing no causal inferences. Exceptions are the relation between price of beer and wine and the consumption of these beverages and the relation between a decrease in transport mortality and the increased use of breathalyzers tests and a restriction of paracommercial selling. Conclusions: unplanned factors are most strongly associated with per capita consumption and harms. ANN-analysis indicates that price of alcoholic beverages, breath testing, and restriction of sales may have had some influence. The study's limitations are noted.