A validated tumor control probability model based on a meta-analysis of low, intermediate, and high-risk prostate cancer patients treated by photon, proton, or carbon-ion radiotherapy

Sean Walsh*, Erik Roelofs, Peter Kuess, Philippe Lambin, Bleddyn Jones, Dietmar Georg, Frank Verhaegen

*Corresponding author for this work

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Purpose: A fully heterogeneous population averaged mechanistic tumor control probability (TCP) model is appropriate for the analysis of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). This has been accomplished for EBRT photon treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Extending the TCP model for low and high-risk patients would be beneficial in terms of overall decision making. Furthermore, different radiation treatment modalities such as protons and carbon-ions are becoming increasingly available. Consequently, there is a need for a complete TCP model. Methods: A TCP model was fitted and validated to a primary endpoint of 5-year biological no evidence of disease clinical outcome data obtained from a review of the literature for low, intermediate, and high-risk prostate cancer patients (5218 patients fitted, 1088 patients validated), treated by photons, protons, or carbon-ions. The review followed the preferred reporting item for systematic reviews and meta-analyses statement. Treatment regimens include standard fractionation and hypofractionation treatments. Residual analysis and goodness of fit statistics were applied. Results: The TCP model achieves a good level of fit overall, linear regression results in a p-value of
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)734-747
JournalMedical Physics
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2016


  • proton
  • carbon-ion
  • prostate
  • TCP
  • RBE

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