A Truth-Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes.

T. Offerman, J.J. Sonnemans, G. van de Kuilen, P.P. Wakker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Proper scoring rules provide convenient and highly efficient tools for incentive-compatible elicitations of subjective beliefs. As traditionally used, however, they are valid only under expected value maximization. This paper shows how they can be generalized to modern (“non-expected utility”) theories of risk and ambiguity, yielding mutual benefits: users of scoring rules can benefit from the empirical realism of non-expected utility, and analysts of ambiguity attitudes can benefit from efficient measurements using proper scoring rules. An experiment demonstrates the feasibility of our generalization.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1461-1489
Number of pages29
JournalReview of Economic Studies
Volume76
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2009

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