A risk score including body mass index, glycated haemoglobin and triglycerides predicts future glycaemic control in people with type 2 diabetes

Dorijn FL Hertroijs*, Arianne MJ Elissen, Martijn CGJ Brouwers, Nicolaas C Schaper, Sebastian Köhler, Mirela C Popa, Stylianos Asteriadis, Steven H Hendriks, Henk J Bilo, Dirk Ruwaard

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review


AimTo identify, predict and validate distinct glycaemic trajectories among patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes treated in primary care, as a first step towards more effective patient-centred care.

MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study in two cohorts, using routinely collected individual patient data from primary care practices obtained from two large Dutch diabetes patient registries. Participants included adult patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes between January 2006 and December 2014 (development cohort, n=10528; validation cohort, n=3777). Latent growth mixture modelling identified distinct glycaemic 5-year trajectories. Machine learning models were built to predict the trajectories using easily obtainable patient characteristics in daily clinical practice.

ResultsThree different glycaemic trajectories were identified: (1) stable, adequate glycaemic control (76.5% of patients); (2) improved glycaemic control (21.3% of patients); and (3) deteriorated glycaemic control (2.2% of patients). Similar trajectories could be discerned in the validation cohort. Body mass index and glycated haemoglobin and triglyceride levels were the most important predictors of trajectory membership. The predictive model, trained on the development cohort, had a receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.96 in the validation cohort, indicating excellent accuracy.

ConclusionsThe developed model can effectively explain heterogeneity in future glycaemic response of patients with type 2 diabetes. It can therefore be used in clinical practice as a quick and easy tool to provide tailored diabetes care.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)681-688
Number of pages8
JournalDiabetes, Obesity and Metabolism
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2018


  • cohort study
  • database research
  • diabetes
  • glycaemic control
  • primary care
  • type 2
  • CARE
  • Humans
  • Middle Aged
  • Triglycerides/metabolism
  • Male
  • Netherlands
  • Female
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment/methods
  • Body Mass Index
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood
  • Blood Glucose/metabolism
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use
  • Glycated Hemoglobin A/metabolism

Cite this