A predictive tool for an effective use of 18F-FDG PET in assessing activity of sarcoidosis

R.L. Mostard, S.M. van Kuijk, J.A. Verschakelen, M.J. van Kroonenburgh, P.J. Nelemans, P.A.H.M. Wijnen, M. Drent*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review


Background: F-18-FDG PET/CT (PET) is useful in assessing inflammatory activity in sarcoidosis. However, no appropriate indications are available. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction rule that can be used to identify symptomatic sarcoidosis patients who have a high probability of PET-positivity.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of sarcoidosis patients with non organ specific persistent disabling symptoms (n = 95). Results of soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) assessment and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) were included in the predefined model. HRCT scans were classified using a semi-quantitative scoring system and PET findings as positive or negative, respectively. A prediction model was derived based on logistic regression analysis. We quantified the model's performance using measures of discrimination and calibration. Finally, we constructed a prediction rule that should be easily applicable in clinical practice.

Results: The prediction rule showed good calibration and good overall performance (goodness-of-fit test, p = 0.78, Brier score 20.1%) and discriminated between patients with positive and negative PET findings (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.83). If a positive predictive value for the presence of inflammatory activity of >= 90% is considered acceptable for clinical decision-making without referral to PET, PET would be indicated in only 29.5% of the patients. Using a positive predictive value of 98%, about half of the patients (46.3%) would require referral to PET.

Conclusions: The derived and internally validated clinical prediction rule, based on sIL-2R levels and HRCT scoring results, appeared to be useful to identify sarcoidosis patients with a high probability of inflammatory activity. Using this rule may enable a more effective use of PET scan for assessment of inflammatory activity in sarcoidosis.

Original languageEnglish
Article number57
Pages (from-to)57-(electr)
Number of pages8
JournalBMC Pulmonary Medicine
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - 14 Sept 2012


  • Clinical prediction rule
  • High-resolution computed tomography
  • Soluble interleukin-2 receptor
  • PET
  • Sarcoidosis


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