Piling up or Packaging Policies? An Ex-Post Analysis of Modal Shift in Four Cities

Recently, there has been wider acknowledgement that sustainable urban mobility will not be triggered by one ‘silver bullet’ policy, or by piling up various policies, but requires a deliberate package of policies. Until recently, studies on policy instrument (or measure) interaction have been primarily ex-ante studies, estimating interactions in the future. However, from an evidence-based policy-making perspective, ex-ante evaluations need to use knowledge gained through ex-post evaluations, a crucial link in the policy cycle. To contribute to the strengthening of this poor link, this paper provides an ex-post analysis of instrument interaction in four northwest European, medium-sized cities: Bruges, Ghent, Jena & Erfurt. By exposing the relationships between the range of mobility policies implemented in relation to modal shift achieved, we offer insight into the crucial difference between ‘piling up policies’ and deliberate policy packages. As such, the paper offers evidence to inform ex-ante analysis for urban mobility policy-making and contributes to policy learning as part of effective governance.