Effects of Substitution of Higher-Alcohol Products with Lower-Alcohol Products on Population-Level Alcohol Purchases: ARIMA Analyses of Spanish Household Data

In its action plan (2022-2030) to reduce the harmful use of alcohol, the WHO calls on economic operators to "substitute, whenever possible, higher-alcohol products with no-alcohol and lower-alcohol products in their overall product portfolios, with the goal of decreasing the overall levels of alcohol consumption in populations and consumer groups". This paper investigates substitution at the level of the consumer, based on Spanish household purchase data. ARIMA modelling of market research data of 1.29 million alcohol purchases from 18,954 Spanish households is used to study the potential impact of lower-strength alcohol products and the impact of beer prices in reducing household purchases of grams of alcohol between the 2nd quarter of 2017 and 1st quarter of 2022. Reducing the alcohol strength of existing higher-strength beers and wines had a much greater associated impact on reducing the purchases of all grams of alcohol than the relatively small increases in purchases of no-alcohol beers (ABV ≤ 1.0%) and zero-alcohol wines (ABV = 0.0%). For beers, the relative price per gram of alcohol decreased with the increasing ABV of the beer. Increasing the price per gram of alcohol in beers with an ABV > 3.5%, adjusted for the ABV of the beer, was associated with much greater increases in purchases of no-alcohol beers (ABV ≤ 1.0%) and much greater decreases in purchases of all grams of alcohol than decreases in the price of no-alcohol beers or increases in the price of beers with an ABV > 3.5% unadjusted for ABV. Thus, a key to reducing purchases of grams of alcohol, which also results in increased purchases of no-alcohol beers, is to increase the price of higher strength beers (ABV > 3.5%) with the price per gram of alcohol increasing as the ABV of the product increases.