On the proportion of patients who experience a prodrome prior to psychosis onset: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundPreventing or delaying the onset of psychosis requires identification of those at risk for developing psychosis. For predictive purposes, the prodrome - a constellation of symptoms which may occur before the onset of psychosis - has been increasingly recognized as having utility. However, it is unclear what proportion of patients experience a prodrome or how this varies based on the multiple definitions used.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of patients with psychosis with the objective of determining the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. Inclusion criteria included a consistent prodrome definition and reporting the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome. We excluded studies of only patients with a prodrome or solely substance-induced psychosis, qualitative studies without prevalence data, conference abstracts, and case reports/case series. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase (Ovid), APA PsycInfo (Ovid), Web of Science Core Collection (Clarivate), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, APA PsycBooks (Ovid), ProQuest Dissertation & Thesis, on March 3, 2021. Studies were assessed for quality using the Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Studies. Narrative synthesis and proportion meta-analysis were used to estimate prodrome prevalence. I2 and predictive interval were used to assess heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were used to probe sources of heterogeneity. (PROSPERO ID: CRD42021239797).ResultsSeventy-one articles were included, representing 13,774 patients. Studies varied significantly in terms of methodology and prodrome definition used. The random effects proportion meta-analysis estimate for prodrome prevalence was 78.3% (95% CI = 72.8-83.2); heterogeneity was high (I2 97.98% [95% CI = 97.71-98.22]); and the prediction interval was wide (95% PI = 0.411-0.936). There were no meaningful differences in prevalence between grouped prodrome definitions, and subgroup analyses failed to reveal a consistent source of heterogeneity.ConclusionsThis is the first meta-analysis on the prevalence of a prodrome prior to the onset of first episode psychosis. The majority of patients (78.3%) were found to have experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. However, findings are highly heterogenous across study and no definitive source of heterogeneity was found despite extensive subgroup analyses. As most studies were retrospective in nature, recall bias likely affects these results. While the large majority of patients with psychosis experience a prodrome in some form, it is unclear if the remainder of patients experience no prodrome, or if ascertainment methods employed in the studies were not sensitive to their experiences. Given widespread investment in indicated prevention of psychosis through prospective identification and intervention during the prodrome, a resolution of this question as well as a consensus definition of the prodrome is much needed in order to effectively direct and organize services, and may be accomplished through novel, densely sampled and phenotyped prospective cohort studies that aim for representative sampling across multiple settings.